Thursday, October 1, 2009

Week 4 Picks: Brett Favre vs. Packers Steals Headlines

I decisively decimated the coin flips last week, further boosting my ego and encouraging me that I can actually make a living doing this type of stuff. Hold your laughter.

An 11-5 showing was my best of the season so far. Coin flip No. 1 (favorite vs. underdog) had an abysmal 6-10 mark, and coin flip No. 2 (home vs. away) was closer at 9-7.

A few of my splits so far this season: 28-20 overall against the spread, 17-7 when picking NFC teams, 11-13 when picking AFC teams. 17-16 when picking the favorite, 9-4 when picking the underdog, 2-0 when the line is even. Without a spread, I'm 36-12.

As I've mentioned in earlier posts, I'm keeping a spreadsheet of my picks this year - which team I pick, whether they're favored or not, and the result. I'll be using the stats I've compiled thus far to make this weeks picks, though I'm sure there will be some bumps in the road.

But first...

Week 3 IRONY
What's ironic about last week's pick'em is there is no irony. I've created this section for my weekly picks, and there's nothing ironic when considering last week in retrospect. Lame.

Week 3 HUMILITY
While there was no irony, there's certainly some humility. I have yet to pick the Jets, still showing no faith in them, neither as underdog nor as favorite. Of course, they're playing the Saints this week...so that lack of support may last another week. Also, the 49ers have been the underdog all three weeks and covered all three weeks. I've only picked them once.

Week 3 FANTASY PURPOSES
Peyton Manning? Why, yes, I'd love another 20+ point performance. Keep 'em coming, big guy. My running backs aren't doing anything for me. Except for Willie Parker, who finally had an 18-point performance last week. But he's listed as questionable for this week. This could mean trouble for my fantasy football flourishing.

To the picks! Only 14 games on tap this time around. The BYE weeks have begun!

(lines courtesy of sportsbook.com)

Sunday 1 p.m.

Ravens (+2) @ Patriots
- The Pats are 1-2 when I pick them as the favorite. The Ravens are 1-0 as the underdog, and one of the three best teams in the National Football League.

Buccaneers @ Redskins (-7)
- The Redskins are 0-2 against the spread as the favorite, but the Buccaneers are 0-3, yet to cover a spread. The Redskins also just lost to the Lions. THE LIONS. Expect this game to push.

Titans @ Jaguars (+3)
- The Jags have been the underdog twice and covered the spread both times. The Titans were favored once and lost. Edge to the home team.

Raiders (+10) @ Texans
- The Raiders are 2-0 against the spread as the underdog. The Texans have been favored twice and failed to cover both times. This actually pretty interesting, isn't it?

Lions @ Bears (-10)
- The Lions have been the underdog each week, winning once, but that win was at home. The Bears have only been favored once, and they covered the spread.

Bengals (-6) @ Browns
- Here's one of the road blocks I was referring to since it's so early in the season. The Bengals have been favored once and lost. Cleveland has been the underdog each time and has yet to beat the spread. The Browns are averaging less than 10 PPG, allowing more than 30, but have a new QB taking snaps. I'll take my chances on Cinci.

Seahawks @ Colts (-11)
- Another tough one due to the massive spread. Indy is 1-1 as the favorite, but playing great football. The Seahawks have been the underdog once, losing to a Bears team that isn't exactly even-par with the Colts. That in mind, I won't be surprised if Seattle covers, since West Coast teams winning on the east coast seems to be the new thing this year.

Giants (-9) @ Chiefs
- The Giants are 1-1 when favored. The Chiefs have lost as underdog, as favorite, and as a PICK. So...yeah.

Sunday 4 p.m.

Jets @ Saints (-7)
- As previously stated, I have yet to pick the Jets, who are 2-0 as underdog. And though New York has the best defense in the land, the Saints have the best offense in the land...by far. I will be beyond shocked if the Jets get the win.

Bills (-3) @ Dolphins
- Bills 1-0 as favorite, Dolphins 0-3 as underdog, despite showing glimmers of hope here and there. Big day for my boy T.O.??

Cowboys (-3) @ Broncos
- This goes against what the trend is telling me to do, but I can't, in my right mind, pick the Broncos. Denver is 2-0 as the underdog. The Broncos have an anemic offense and, by the numbers, a great defense, but they have yet to play anyone. Dallas is 2-1 when favored, 1-0 on the road. Losing this one would be a humbling experience for me.

Rams @ 49ers (-10)
- The Niners have yet to play as a favorite, but the Rams have taken care of that, failing to beat the spread in three straight games to start the season.

Sunday 8 p.m.

Chargers (+7) @ Steelers
- San Diego has been the favorite each week, as has Pittsburgh. The Steelers are 0-3 as the favorite. And I've picked them every time. I'm on a two-game Sunday night winning streak. Let's keep it going.

Monday Night FUBAL!

Packers (+4) @ Vikings
- Game of the week? I actually prefer Saints/Jets, but when the MNF schedule was decided upon, I see why they chose this one. It will be better when Favre goes to Green Bay. Either way, each team has been favored each time, and each team has failed to cover the spread once. When Minnesota failed to cover, it was at home.

3 comments:

Eric said...

Liking the Chargers pick. The Broncos have the best fantasy defense so far this season and Romo likes to turn it over, should be an interesting game.

Travis Miller said...

The Broncos have also played the Bengals, Browns, and Raiders. By far the least impressive 3-0 in the league. This is their chance to change my mind, I just don't see it happening.

Eric said...

Well they better do it cuz I'm starting them this week.