After a 10-6 showing last week (4-5 on 1 p.m. games, 6-1 from 4 p.m. through Monday night), I'm at a mediocre 17-15 for the season (24-8 without a spread).
My head barely above water, I'm going to switch things up a little this week. I'll still be making my picks accompanied with the same old lame one-liners, but as suggested by a friend, I'll be competing against a quarter, flipping a coin twice on each game - once to choose between favorite and underdog, and once to choose between home team and visitor.
Before we do that, it's time for my new favorite segment, "Irony, Humility, and Fantasy Purposes."
First, irony. This section is full of material this week, but some are also well-suited for the "Humility" and "Fantasy Purposes" sections, so I'll save them. Let's go with all the hoopla on ESPN about the Arizona Cardinals, a west coast team, playing a 1 p.m. game on the east coast. I had the Cardinals picked to beat the spread, but after reading a Bill Simmons column and watching NFL experts analyze Sunday's games over and over, I was convinced I should change my pick.
I did, and the Cardinals beat the Jaguars into oblivion. Figures.
Humility? Aside from changing my mind on the Cardinals because of what the experts told me, how about my bashing of UVA graduate, Matt Schaub. He lit up the Tennessee Titans' defense for 357 pass yards and four touchdowns...in Tennessee. He's still funny to look at.
And fantasy purposes...a crushing 85-82 loss left me searching for answers this week. Greg Jennings, after I told him I wasn't mad at him (more irony), went off for a whopping ZERO points, putting me in a huge hole. Peyton Manning did all he could to help me pull off a great comeback, but 20 points on MNF left me just a few points short. I blame it on Miami for having the ball for 3/4 of the game. Ridiculous.
Now for Week 3 picks (lines courtesy of sportsbook.com):
Sunday 1 p.m.
Packers (-7) @ Rams
- Can't help but look at the spread and feel like this one might push. Greg Jennings, don't make me cry.
Coin flip one (heads for favorite, tails for underdog): Rams
Coin flip two (heads for home team, tails for away): Packers
49ers @ Vikings (-7)
- Both teams have a solid offense with a decent defense. Adrian Peterson and home field advantage should outlast Frank Gore and company.
Coin flip one: Vikings
Coin flip two: 49ers
Falcons @ Patriots (-4)
- The oddsmakers aren't dumb dumbs. Though the Falcons have looked great and the Patriots have looked vulnerable, so I'm going with the Pats...even though I'm 0-2 when picking them already this year.
Coin flip one: Falcons
Coin flip two: Falcons (uh oh, I better get this one right).
Titans (+3) @ Jets
- Remember this game last year? The Titans were 10-0 and the Jets waltzed into Tennessee and trounced them, 34-13. Can the Titans right their ship in the Meadowlands? Or will Mark Sanchez and the Jets defense continue walking with that swagger? I'm betting on a hangover from the huge victory against New England.
Coin flip one: Jets
Coin flip two: Jets
Chiefs @ Eagles (PICK)
- Come on, the Eagles aren't THAT bad! You can't blame a team without it's starting quarterback for being unable to keep up with Drew Brees' offensive onslaught. And you can't blame the defense for not being able to stop him with all the weapons he has. The Chiefs? A pick'em? No way...
I can't wait to see Mike Vick back on the field.
Coin flip one: Chiefs (as the away team, I have to consider them the underdog)
Coin flip two: Eagles
Giants (-7) @ Buccaneers
- Tampa has proven it can score some points, but has also proven it can't beat the spread yet. Until then, I pick agains the Bucs.
Coin flip one: Buccaneers
Coin flip two: Giants
Browns @ Ravens (-13)
- Baltimore's defense hasn't blown me away, but they've put 69 points on the board through two games. Cleveland's defense has allowed 61 points through two games. 35-21, Baltimore sounds good. But I won't be surprised when the Browns score a junk touchdown at the end to cover.
Coin flip one: Browns
Coin flip two: Ravens
Jaguars (+4) @ Texans
- No clue what to think of this game. Jags got a wake up call after starting 0-2 while Houston really doesn't have a run game established - 101 yards total through two games isn't going to cut it. If the Jags lose this one, the season could already be gone.
Coin flip one: Texans
Coin flip two: Jaguars
Redskins @ Lions (+7)
- Yes, I'm seriously picking the Lions to cover. That's how mad the inept Washington offense made me last week. Then there's the whole Robert Henson/Twitter drama. Watch the accompanying video. Mike Greenberg chalks up a win in his book.
Coin flip one: Redskins
Coin flip two: Redskins
Sunday 4 p.m.
Bears (-2) @ Seahawks
- Chicago is coming off a huge win. Though it was probably a fluke, the offense is bound to find a rhythm soon.
Coin flip one: Da Bears
Coin flip two: Seahawks
Saints (-6) @ Bills
- I mean...there's no reason anybody should be picking against the Saints right now. New Orleans is averaging 468 yards of total offense per game. That number will eventually come down to earth. But then again, will it? (Sounds like a nice set up for my "irony" section next week!)
Coin flip one: Saints
Coin flip two: Saints (No love for my only loyal reader!)
Steelers (-4) @ Bengals
- What's that? Coming out party for Willie Parker? What's that? 25 fantasy points...at least? Sounds good to me, Willie!
Coin flip one: Bengals
Coin flip two: Bengals...(should I be concerned?)
Dolphins (+6) @ Chargers
- Makes sense to me after Miami's MNF showing. High-scoring game, should at least be close.
Coin flip one: Chargers
Coin flip two: Dolphins
Broncos @ Raiders (-2)
- I'm not the only one who thinks the Raiders have actually looked decent through two games and the Broncos' 2-0 record is the shoddiest 2-0 possible.
Coin flip one: Raiders
Coin flip two: Broncos
Sunday 8:20 p.m.
Colts (+3) @ Cardinals
- Indy isn't favored - all because of the inability to stop Miami's wildcat formation? The Colts still won that game, didn't they? Ah, thought so. Prove me wrong, Arizona. And thanks again for letting me screw myself over last week.
Coin flip one: Cardinals
Coin flip two: Cardinals...
Monday Night FOOTBALL!!!
Panthers @ Cowboys (-9)
- This should be the beatdown we didn't see last week. The Dallas celebration we didn't see last week. Jerry Jones can afford to pretend last week just didn't happen. THIS is the first regular-season game played at his new palace, which is unbelievable, I might add.
Coin flip one: Cowboys
Coin flip two: Panthers
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1 comment:
Interesting idea with the coin flip, although, I don't really like the apparent fact that George Washington hates the Bills too. Greenburg gets tons of points for his rant about that guy who does more on twitter than he does on the field.
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