Thursday, October 8, 2009

Week 5 Picks: Week 4 Sucked!

In Las Vegas, there exists a cult-like group of people, appropriately named "wise guys." They do what I've been trying to do (outsmart the oddsmakers), only they're much more intense and in-depth about things.

Because of the existence of these "wise guys," it has become the goal of oddsmakers to outsmart the wise guys. They aren't worried about the casual betting man, because the casual betting man does not pose a potentially detrimental threat to the money-making system.

It is the oddsmakers' jobs to stay one step ahead of the wise guys. Thus, I went 6-8 last week. Even through the 1 p.m. and 4 p.m. games, with losses at 8 p.m. and on Monday Night Football.

IRONY

The Redskins have been favored against the Rams, Lions, and Buccaneers...and failed to cover every time. This is setting up for them to do some serious damage at the end of the year as the betting man loses faith in Washington.

HUMILITY

Where to start? Ah, yes. I'll quote:

"This goes against what the trend is telling me to do, but I can't, in my right mind, pick the Broncos. Denver is 2-0 as the underdog. The Broncos have an anemic offense and, by the numbers, a great defense, but they have yet to play anyone. Dallas is 2-1 when favored, 1-0 on the road. Losing this one would be a humbling experience for me."

Right then and there, everybody in the whole world should have known to put every penny they own on the Broncos. Figures. Also, picking the Raiders was just a dumb move in retrospect. They looked good ONCE - against the Chargers. That doesn't make them a good team.

FANTASY PURPOSES

I'm not concerned about last week anymore. I'm looking ahead at this week, where Greg Jennings, Vincent Jackson, and John Carney all have off. I traveled to the waiver wire early and often, so I'm counting on my scrubs to do some damage.

In other words, I'm praying for Peyton Manning to score 40 points this week. And if Rashard Mendenhall can repeat what he did last week, that would be super.


Just glancing at the games, they look very one-sided. I expect at least 12-2 in straight up picks. The spreads are probably going to be very high, so no promises or predictions for how I'll fare there.

(lines courtesy of sportsbook.com)

Sunday 1 p.m.

Browns @ Bills (-6)
- Dangerous game to start with. Buffalo can't screw this up, right?

Steelers (-11) @ Lions
- Dangerous game with such a lofty spread. Pittsburgh can't screw this up, right?

Cowboys (-9) @ Chiefs
- Vegas wants bettors to lose faith in the 'Boys ability to cover. They've been favored each week, going back and forth, win, loss, win, loss. It's time for a win! I've noted the irony that I was just talking about how the oddmakers try to stay one step ahead of wise guys, so in theory, Dallas shouldn't cover.

Vikings (-10) @ Rams
- After such a spirited victory last week, there could be a huge hangover against St. Louis.

...nah.

Raiders @ Giants (-16)
- After what I just said about the Raiders, there's no way I can pick them to beat the spread.

Buccaneers @ Eagles (-15)
- Now I might be a little crazy. I've picked double-digit favorites all four times I've had the option. One of these teams is bound to cover.

Redskins @ Panthers (-4)
- IT'S A TRAP! Though this might just be a gimme, further setting up Washington's late-season hot streak. Jake Delhomme didn't throw any interceptions last week, but he also had a BYE.

Bengals @ Ravens (-9)
- Ravens had a bad game last week, but Cinci isn't exactly New England.


Sunday 4 p.m.

Falcons @ 49ers (+3)
- I took all favorites in the 1 p.m. games. The 4 o'clock games are all a lot tougher to pick. I'll start with an underdog, though the Falcons are rested after having off last week.

Jaguars (PICK) @ Seahawks
- The Jags seem to have some swagger of late, especially on offense. The Seahawks are dealing with injuries and haven't won since Week 1...against the Rams.

Texans (+6) @ Cardinals
- I like the Cardinals to win, especially coming off a BYE, but the Texans will give them a game, keeping it close, if not actually pulling it out. Taking Houston at six points is a no-brainer (setup for Irony, Humility?).

Patriots (-4) @ Broncos
- You have no idea how mad I will be if the Broncos cover. If they win, I quit.


Sunday 8 p.m.

Colts (-5) @ Titans
- Maybe because it's prime time, maybe because it's on the road, or maybe because everybody knows the Titans aren't this bad...but I have a very uneasy feeling about this game. Considering how Ronnie Brown ran all over the Colts, I think Chris Johnson will have a huge game, and I won't be surprised if I get this pick wrong.

If I do, it's a double loss, because it probably means Peyton Manning did bad, fully securing a fantasy loss for me.


Monday Night (football)

Jets (-2) @ Dolphins
- Yawn. What else is on? Oh, playoff baseball? Nevermind, I'll watch football.

4 comments:

Eric said...

Redskins will win

Travis Miller said...

Yeah, right.

Eric said...

Should have picked the 'Skins

Travis Miller said...

So we were both right.