Thursday, October 29, 2009

Week 8: Live From Chicago!

Due to my inability to deal with the thought of being near a Yankees/Phillies World Series, I've uprooted from New York and am currently residing in the Windy City in hopes of removing the Mets' curse and bringing them a championship in 2010.

But before that happens, I need to get my Week 8 picks in.

I'm blogging from a coffee shop (I don't drink coffee but they have free WiFi) because I don't have a home, and thus, no internet, so I must be brief.

Just counted up quick and it looks like I went 6-6-1 last week, the first push of the season. I'm lucky it wasn't a loss - the 49ers looked terrible (because I predicted them to look great!). I'm sure there was plenty of irony and humility which I can't cover all of right now, but let me take a moment to talk about fantasy purposes.

Vincent Jackson, the Eagles' defense, and Peyton Manning saved me big time last week as I pulled off the upset. I had Miles Austin (29 points) on the bench. Where is Greg Jennings???

(lines c/o

Sunday 1 p.m.

Dolphins @ Jets (-4)
- Miami almost beat New Orleans, not to mention embarrassing the Jets last time they met. No way they lose this game. Wink.

Giants (+1) @ Eagles
- The Giants have become freakishly human lately.

Broncos @ Ravens (-3)
- I've basically given up on Baltimore, and I've accepted that Kyle Orton is God's gift to the NFL.

Texans (-4) @ Bills
- Go Bills.

Browns @ Bears (-14)
- Seems like a good game for the Browns to cover.

Seahawks @ Cowboys (-10)
- Is it just me or are all of my post-pick blurbs contradictory to my picks?

Rams @ Lions (-4)
- Worst game ever? It's close to it, but every time the Rams play a bad team, it could be the worst game ever. Like when they lost 9-7 to the Redskins in Week 2.

49ers @ Colts (-13)
- I'm terrified that Peyton Manning will have a bad game soon. Until that happens, I'll ride the wave.

Sunday 4 p.m.

Jaguars (+3) @ Titans
- I'm terrfied that the Titans will win a game soon now that I've stopped picking them. Until that happens, I'll ride the wave.

Raiders (+17) @ Chargers
- Did nobody watch these teams play in Week 1? Oakland seems to show up to play every other week. Last week wasn't a good week.

Panthers (+11) @ Cardinals
- It's not my style to pick the Panthers in a game like this. Let's see how it works out, Cotton.

Vikings (+3) @ Packers
- Brett Favre. Brett Favre. Brett Favre. Brett Favre. Brett Favre. Brett Favre. Brett Favre.

Sunday 8 p.m.


Monday Night Favreball

Falcons @ Saints (-11)
- Brett Favre. Brett Favre. Brett Favre.

Monday, October 26, 2009

Yanks/Phils - I mean...damn.

There is nothing less exciting for a Mets fan than the Yankees and Phillies playing in the World Series.

I didn't think the season could get worse, but I was wrong.

The Yankees should be the Phillies in five games, and I'd prefer the Yankees win anyway.

Here's why.

Thursday, October 22, 2009

Week 7 Picks: Ignoring MLB for as Long as I Can

The Phillies are in. The Yankees are up 3-1. I've already written up the column I promised about which team I'll be rooting for. It's just waiting for the deed to be done so I can post it.

I'm not proud.

Week 6 Irony
- I picked the Broncos in hopes of them losing. I got the pick right. Damnit! They're still undefeated! HOW?!!

Week 6 Humility
- I went 8-6 last week, which was much better than my 4-10 implosion the week prior. One of my finer picks was the Titans, who only needed to lose by less than 10 points against the Patriots, in the cold and snow. They lost 59-0. And the Pats only played for two and a half quarters. Nice.

Week 6 Fantasy Purposes
- As I sat at Buffalo Wild Wings watching the 4 p.m. games, I watched Donovan McNabb throw up a huge brick against the Raiders. Luckily I was also watching Wes Welker having tons of fun in the snow. Peyton is back this week, and I need him to come up huuuuuuge because I'm playing against Tom Brady.

(lines c/o

Sunday 1 p.m.

49ers (+3) @ Texans
- Frank Gore is back, Michael Crabtree is going to be in the lineup. Should be a good day for San Fran. The Texans are playing well but stink at home. Confidence level: not high. Just checked my fantasy pick'em, completed Tuesday. I picked the Texans.

Packers (-7) @ Browns
- Green Bay has done its job against the bad teams this year, but the Browns have beaten the spread three straight weeks. Greg Jennings is DUE!

Chargers (-6) @ Chiefs
- KC has been playing teams tough the past few weeks, including beating the spread two straight times. Scared? I might be.

Colts (-14) @ Rams
- Why did Peyton Manning stop doing commercials?

Vikings (+5) @ Steelers
- This is probably the week that Pittsburgh turns things around. The Steelers hate me. I've gotten their game wrong EVERY SINGLE WEEK. They fail to cover every time I pick them, and the only time I didn't pick them, they beat San Diego handily.

Patriots (-16) @ Buccaneers
- Will not playing in the snow affect Tom Brady? I'm not sure. Would I still take the Pats if the spread were up around 40? Yes.

Sunday 4 p.m.

Jets @ Raiders (+7)
- Here's the thing with the Raiders. They look great one week, then completely die the next. The way the Jets looked last week compared to Oakland, there's no way New York should be favored in this game. But I'm falling for the trick and taking Oakland. I've only gotten the pick right in the Jets' games once this season, and that was easy because they were playing New Orleans.

Bills @ Panthers (-7)
- My train of thought here: Both teams are pretty bad this year. Pick Carolina to cover in hopes that I jinx them because I'm playing against DeAngelo Williams in fantasy this week. A low scoring game or a Panthers loss would hopefully mean he doesn't drop 29 points on me like he did on poor Sanger last week. That wasn't Sanger's only problem, since he was facing Thomas Jones and Tom Brady, too. I think I'm in big trouble this week.

Bears (+1) @ Bengals
- The Bengals peaked. Chicago is about to find its stride.

Falcons (+4) @ Cowboys
- Making my picks right now, I feel confident that it's going to be a good week. I'm setting myself up for a major heartbreak.

Saints (-7) @ Dolphins
- I have a terrible feeling that the Dolphins are going to show up to play and New Orleans will have a hangover from the beatdown of the Giants.

Sunday 8(ish) p.m.

Cardinals @ Giants (-7)
- Could be a good game. I'm hoping it is for about three quarters. Then New York wins by 8. Or 9. Or 10. Just more than 7, please.

Monday Night Futbol Americano

Eagles (-7) @ Redskins
- I'll point back to Week 5 when I mentioned twice that the Redskins will get hot as soon as bettors lose faith in them. Jim Zorn's job in turmoil. New guy calling plays. QBs are frustrated and confused. This has all the makings for an upset. NOBODY has the Redskins in this game. Not even me.

Thursday, October 15, 2009

Week 6 Picks, MLB League Championship "Previews"

Due to excessive irony, humility, and a brutal fantasy week, I'll be skipping my favorite segment this time around. I went 4-10 against the spread, 7-7 in straight picks, when I guaranteed at least 12 correct. Absolutely disgusting. I said I'd quit if the Broncos beat the Pats, and even though I'm not quitting, my heart is absolutely not in it this week. Disgusting.

Time for a quick ALCS and NLCS preview: As I do every year, I went 2-2 in my Division Series picks.

Dodgers/Phillies - There is nothing worse than the thought of a Phillies repeat...even the Yankees winning. That's right. We all have to deal with Yankees fans, regardless of outcome. They'll never shut up. At least if the Phillies are humbled, they'll go back into hibernation for awhile. The Dodgers have the edge in the bullpen, so I'll ride that to the promised land.

Dodgers in seven.

Yankees/Angels - No, I won't be surprised when picking both L.A. teams to advance turns out to be wrong. Don't care. Down with Jeter!

Angels in four.

To the NFL!

(lines c/o

Sunday 1 p.m.

Texans (+5) @ Bengals
- Not jumping on the Bengals bandwagon. Not after what Carson Palmer did to my fantasy team last year. Nope. And not even if I'm 1-4 on the Texans' games...because I'm 1-4 on the Bengals' games, too. So I'll get this one wrong regardless.

Lions @ Packers (-14)
- Packers are coming off a bye and the Lions may not have their top QB or wide receiver. 4-1 on the Lions' games (tough, I know) and 1-3 on the Packers'.

Ravens (+3) @ Vikings
- Ever since I pronounced the Ravens as one of the best teams in the league, they're 0-2. I'm not ready to give up on them yet. 3-2 on each team's games.

Giants (+3) @ Saints
- This will be a good football game. We'll find out more about the Saints' offense and defense than we will about the Giants. I'm 4-0 with the Saints, 4-1 with the Giants.

Browns @ Steelers (-15)
- Steelers couldn't cover against the Lions. Should I be concerned about the weather? Perhaps. But the Browns only managed two field goals against the Bills. Lucky for them, the Bills only managed one field goal. 1-4 with Pittsburgh, 3-2 with Cleveland.

Panthers (-3) @ Buccaneers
- This would be embarrassing to get wrong. <---I think I'm about 0-5 after saying that, so go put your money on Tampa. QUICK! 4-1 on Tampa, 3-1 on Carolina.

Chiefs (+7) @ Redskins
- This might be about where the Redskins begin to turn things around. The media, and thus the entire world, has given up on Washington. 4-1 on Chiefs, 2-3 on Washington.

Rams @ Jaguars (-10)
- The Jaguars seriously lost 41-0 last week. Against the Seahawks. At least they're at home this week...and playing the Rams. 4-1 Rams, 2-3 Jags.

Sunday 4 p.m.

Cardinals (+3) @ Seahawks
- If the Seahawks being favored is a joke, I don't get it. 3-2 Seahawks, 1-3 Cards.

Eagles (-15) @ Raiders
- Peyton Manning is on a bye this week. Donovan is IN! Do work. 4-0 Eagles, 2-3 Raiders.

Titans (+10) @ Patriots
- I haven't lost faith in either team yet, but it's going to be about 45 degrees and rainy in Foxboro on Sunday. Low scoring game, gotta love the Titans to cover. 2-3 Tennessee, 1-4 Pats.

Bills @ Jets (-10)
- You would think with similar weather conditions, I would again stay away from a 10-point spread. But did you see the Bills play last week? No? Good. I'm doing Ernie a favor by picking the Jets because I'm 1-4 in their games, 2-3 with the Bills. Citing my stats makes me really sad.

Sunday 8 p.m.

Bears @ Falcons (-3)
- Not sure what to expect from this game. 50 fantasy points from Michael Turner? Don't mind if I do. 2-2 Bears, 3-1 Falcons.

Monday Night Football....!

Broncos (+4) @ Chargers
- I'm picking the Broncos so they'll finally lose a game. Please, just lose. You aren't deserving of a 5-0 record. Or a 4-1 record. Or a 3-2 record. (2-3 Broncos, 1-3 Chargers)

Thursday, October 8, 2009

Week 5 Picks: Week 4 Sucked!

In Las Vegas, there exists a cult-like group of people, appropriately named "wise guys." They do what I've been trying to do (outsmart the oddsmakers), only they're much more intense and in-depth about things.

Because of the existence of these "wise guys," it has become the goal of oddsmakers to outsmart the wise guys. They aren't worried about the casual betting man, because the casual betting man does not pose a potentially detrimental threat to the money-making system.

It is the oddsmakers' jobs to stay one step ahead of the wise guys. Thus, I went 6-8 last week. Even through the 1 p.m. and 4 p.m. games, with losses at 8 p.m. and on Monday Night Football.


The Redskins have been favored against the Rams, Lions, and Buccaneers...and failed to cover every time. This is setting up for them to do some serious damage at the end of the year as the betting man loses faith in Washington.


Where to start? Ah, yes. I'll quote:

"This goes against what the trend is telling me to do, but I can't, in my right mind, pick the Broncos. Denver is 2-0 as the underdog. The Broncos have an anemic offense and, by the numbers, a great defense, but they have yet to play anyone. Dallas is 2-1 when favored, 1-0 on the road. Losing this one would be a humbling experience for me."

Right then and there, everybody in the whole world should have known to put every penny they own on the Broncos. Figures. Also, picking the Raiders was just a dumb move in retrospect. They looked good ONCE - against the Chargers. That doesn't make them a good team.


I'm not concerned about last week anymore. I'm looking ahead at this week, where Greg Jennings, Vincent Jackson, and John Carney all have off. I traveled to the waiver wire early and often, so I'm counting on my scrubs to do some damage.

In other words, I'm praying for Peyton Manning to score 40 points this week. And if Rashard Mendenhall can repeat what he did last week, that would be super.

Just glancing at the games, they look very one-sided. I expect at least 12-2 in straight up picks. The spreads are probably going to be very high, so no promises or predictions for how I'll fare there.

(lines courtesy of

Sunday 1 p.m.

Browns @ Bills (-6)
- Dangerous game to start with. Buffalo can't screw this up, right?

Steelers (-11) @ Lions
- Dangerous game with such a lofty spread. Pittsburgh can't screw this up, right?

Cowboys (-9) @ Chiefs
- Vegas wants bettors to lose faith in the 'Boys ability to cover. They've been favored each week, going back and forth, win, loss, win, loss. It's time for a win! I've noted the irony that I was just talking about how the oddmakers try to stay one step ahead of wise guys, so in theory, Dallas shouldn't cover.

Vikings (-10) @ Rams
- After such a spirited victory last week, there could be a huge hangover against St. Louis.


Raiders @ Giants (-16)
- After what I just said about the Raiders, there's no way I can pick them to beat the spread.

Buccaneers @ Eagles (-15)
- Now I might be a little crazy. I've picked double-digit favorites all four times I've had the option. One of these teams is bound to cover.

Redskins @ Panthers (-4)
- IT'S A TRAP! Though this might just be a gimme, further setting up Washington's late-season hot streak. Jake Delhomme didn't throw any interceptions last week, but he also had a BYE.

Bengals @ Ravens (-9)
- Ravens had a bad game last week, but Cinci isn't exactly New England.

Sunday 4 p.m.

Falcons @ 49ers (+3)
- I took all favorites in the 1 p.m. games. The 4 o'clock games are all a lot tougher to pick. I'll start with an underdog, though the Falcons are rested after having off last week.

Jaguars (PICK) @ Seahawks
- The Jags seem to have some swagger of late, especially on offense. The Seahawks are dealing with injuries and haven't won since Week 1...against the Rams.

Texans (+6) @ Cardinals
- I like the Cardinals to win, especially coming off a BYE, but the Texans will give them a game, keeping it close, if not actually pulling it out. Taking Houston at six points is a no-brainer (setup for Irony, Humility?).

Patriots (-4) @ Broncos
- You have no idea how mad I will be if the Broncos cover. If they win, I quit.

Sunday 8 p.m.

Colts (-5) @ Titans
- Maybe because it's prime time, maybe because it's on the road, or maybe because everybody knows the Titans aren't this bad...but I have a very uneasy feeling about this game. Considering how Ronnie Brown ran all over the Colts, I think Chris Johnson will have a huge game, and I won't be surprised if I get this pick wrong.

If I do, it's a double loss, because it probably means Peyton Manning did bad, fully securing a fantasy loss for me.

Monday Night (football)

Jets (-2) @ Dolphins
- Yawn. What else is on? Oh, playoff baseball? Nevermind, I'll watch football.

Wednesday, October 7, 2009

I feel sympathy for the Minnesota Twins

The Minnesota Twins are full of character and the team's playoff run is a great storyline going into the playoffs - Major League Baseball really needed this as a crutch for the way the NFL and NCAA without a doubt CRUSHED MLB in the month of September. There were barely any races, therefore, no way to distract fans away from fantasy football, even for a minute or two.

That being said, they're going to be mutilated by the New York Yankees, who are a complete machine of a team. Questions in the rotation do make them appear to be mortal, afterall, but it is a facade.

Members of the offense have been on and off in la-la land throughout the season, but with all of them fully concentrating on the task at hand, expect the Yankees to put up 14 in the first game. And in the second game. And in the third game...

Yankees over Twins in 3

Boston and Anaheim will be having a very underrated series. I really hate to watch the Yankees' top two foes go at it, but it's impossible for the Yankees to have to go through both the Angels and the Red Sox in a single postseason, so I guess it's good they have to play at least one of them.

Red Sox over Angels in 4

In the National League, the Phillies play the Wild Card Rockies. Like the Yankees, the Phillies' offense will not allow them to lose this series. The Rockies would be best to concede the Cliff Lee game to open the series and save their pitchers for the ensuing games.

Phillies over Rockies in 3

Can the Dodgers surprise the Cardinals? The Dodgers have lulled baseball fans to sleep with the way they finished, but think about it - that's a larger representation of what Manny does. He takes the end of the season off to rest up for the playoffs. Every year. Only difference this year is he wasn't shut down like usual. He played, just poorly. He'll be hot in the playoffs, which might be contagious in the clubhouse. The Dodgers are struggling to find pitching, compared to what I think is the best rotation in the playoffs. Oh yeah, and there's Albert Pujols.

Cardinals over Dodgers in 5

I will be mad if the Phillies represent the National League in the World Series. I will be mad if the Yankees represent the American League in the World Series. Should the two play for the World Series, I have not yet chosen which bomb shelter to check into. I'm not 100 percent decided on which team I would root for. Should the situation arise, I promise a pro/con list analyzing a Mets fans choices here.

Thursday, October 1, 2009

Week 4 Picks: Brett Favre vs. Packers Steals Headlines

I decisively decimated the coin flips last week, further boosting my ego and encouraging me that I can actually make a living doing this type of stuff. Hold your laughter.

An 11-5 showing was my best of the season so far. Coin flip No. 1 (favorite vs. underdog) had an abysmal 6-10 mark, and coin flip No. 2 (home vs. away) was closer at 9-7.

A few of my splits so far this season: 28-20 overall against the spread, 17-7 when picking NFC teams, 11-13 when picking AFC teams. 17-16 when picking the favorite, 9-4 when picking the underdog, 2-0 when the line is even. Without a spread, I'm 36-12.

As I've mentioned in earlier posts, I'm keeping a spreadsheet of my picks this year - which team I pick, whether they're favored or not, and the result. I'll be using the stats I've compiled thus far to make this weeks picks, though I'm sure there will be some bumps in the road.

But first...

Week 3 IRONY
What's ironic about last week's pick'em is there is no irony. I've created this section for my weekly picks, and there's nothing ironic when considering last week in retrospect. Lame.

While there was no irony, there's certainly some humility. I have yet to pick the Jets, still showing no faith in them, neither as underdog nor as favorite. Of course, they're playing the Saints this that lack of support may last another week. Also, the 49ers have been the underdog all three weeks and covered all three weeks. I've only picked them once.

Peyton Manning? Why, yes, I'd love another 20+ point performance. Keep 'em coming, big guy. My running backs aren't doing anything for me. Except for Willie Parker, who finally had an 18-point performance last week. But he's listed as questionable for this week. This could mean trouble for my fantasy football flourishing.

To the picks! Only 14 games on tap this time around. The BYE weeks have begun!

(lines courtesy of

Sunday 1 p.m.

Ravens (+2) @ Patriots
- The Pats are 1-2 when I pick them as the favorite. The Ravens are 1-0 as the underdog, and one of the three best teams in the National Football League.

Buccaneers @ Redskins (-7)
- The Redskins are 0-2 against the spread as the favorite, but the Buccaneers are 0-3, yet to cover a spread. The Redskins also just lost to the Lions. THE LIONS. Expect this game to push.

Titans @ Jaguars (+3)
- The Jags have been the underdog twice and covered the spread both times. The Titans were favored once and lost. Edge to the home team.

Raiders (+10) @ Texans
- The Raiders are 2-0 against the spread as the underdog. The Texans have been favored twice and failed to cover both times. This actually pretty interesting, isn't it?

Lions @ Bears (-10)
- The Lions have been the underdog each week, winning once, but that win was at home. The Bears have only been favored once, and they covered the spread.

Bengals (-6) @ Browns
- Here's one of the road blocks I was referring to since it's so early in the season. The Bengals have been favored once and lost. Cleveland has been the underdog each time and has yet to beat the spread. The Browns are averaging less than 10 PPG, allowing more than 30, but have a new QB taking snaps. I'll take my chances on Cinci.

Seahawks @ Colts (-11)
- Another tough one due to the massive spread. Indy is 1-1 as the favorite, but playing great football. The Seahawks have been the underdog once, losing to a Bears team that isn't exactly even-par with the Colts. That in mind, I won't be surprised if Seattle covers, since West Coast teams winning on the east coast seems to be the new thing this year.

Giants (-9) @ Chiefs
- The Giants are 1-1 when favored. The Chiefs have lost as underdog, as favorite, and as a PICK. So...yeah.

Sunday 4 p.m.

Jets @ Saints (-7)
- As previously stated, I have yet to pick the Jets, who are 2-0 as underdog. And though New York has the best defense in the land, the Saints have the best offense in the far. I will be beyond shocked if the Jets get the win.

Bills (-3) @ Dolphins
- Bills 1-0 as favorite, Dolphins 0-3 as underdog, despite showing glimmers of hope here and there. Big day for my boy T.O.??

Cowboys (-3) @ Broncos
- This goes against what the trend is telling me to do, but I can't, in my right mind, pick the Broncos. Denver is 2-0 as the underdog. The Broncos have an anemic offense and, by the numbers, a great defense, but they have yet to play anyone. Dallas is 2-1 when favored, 1-0 on the road. Losing this one would be a humbling experience for me.

Rams @ 49ers (-10)
- The Niners have yet to play as a favorite, but the Rams have taken care of that, failing to beat the spread in three straight games to start the season.

Sunday 8 p.m.

Chargers (+7) @ Steelers
- San Diego has been the favorite each week, as has Pittsburgh. The Steelers are 0-3 as the favorite. And I've picked them every time. I'm on a two-game Sunday night winning streak. Let's keep it going.

Monday Night FUBAL!

Packers (+4) @ Vikings
- Game of the week? I actually prefer Saints/Jets, but when the MNF schedule was decided upon, I see why they chose this one. It will be better when Favre goes to Green Bay. Either way, each team has been favored each time, and each team has failed to cover the spread once. When Minnesota failed to cover, it was at home.